We’ve again included our Special Report on the Election & Housing below today’s news, because this one is really important!
Election Day Finally Here
Tim Rood, Chairman of the Collingwood Group with his Election Day take on what the next President needs to do to fix housing, Tim Appears on TV’s Business First AM from the Chicago CME. Click here: https://youtu.be/vU0MXC8vRRo
Americans Still Don’t Believe It’s a Good Time to Buy a Home!
The Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) dropped another 1.1 points to 81.7 in October, the third decrease in as many months as consumer anxiety persists.
- The share who think it is a good time to buy remained at an all-time survey low.
- The net percentage of those who say it is a good time to sell rose 4 percentage points to 19% in October, 1 percentage point away from the all-time survey high seen in July. The share who think it is a bad time to sell tied an all time survey low last reached in July.
- The net share of Americans who say that home prices will go up continued to fall in October, falling 3 percentage points from last month to 31%.
- The net share of those who say mortgage rates will go down over the next 12 months fell 1 percentage point to -45%.
- The net share of Americans who say they are not concerned with losing their job fell 1 percentage point to 69%.
- The net share of Americans who say their household income is significantly higher than it was 12 months ago fell 8 percentage points to 4%, the lowest it has been in more than three years.
Builder Confidence increases for 55+ Housing Market
Builders report that the single-family 55+ housing market is holding strong in the third quarter, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) 55+ Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. The index had a reading of 59, up two points from the previous quarter and the 10th consecutive quarter with a reading above 50.
“Builders and developers for the 55+ housing sector tell us that business is solid right now and they expect that trend to continue through the rest of the year,” said Jim Chapman, chairman of NAHB’s 55+ Housing Industry Council and president of Jim Chapman Homes LLC in Atlanta.
“The 55+ housing market continues on a steady path toward recovery, much like the overall housing market,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Older home owners are able to take advantage of low mortgage rates and rising home prices, enabling them to sell their current homes and buy or rent a home in a 55+ community.”
LendingClub’s stock jumps after results beat expectations
Shares of LendingClub ran up 4.3% in premarket trade Monday, after the online credit marketplace reported better-than-expected expected third-quarter results, and provided an upbeat outlook. The loss for the quarter through Sept. 30 was $36.5 million, or 9 cents a share, compared with earnings of $950,000, or breakeven on a per-share basis. Excluding non-recurring items, the adjusted loss per share was 4 cents, beating the FactSet consensus for a loss of 7 cents per share. Total revenue fell to $114.6 million from $116.3 million, with operating revenue declining to $112.6 million from $115.1 million. The FactSet consensus was $103.7 million. Transaction revenue of $100.8 million, up from $100.4 million, beat the FactSet consensus of $95.7 million. For the fourth quarter, revenue is expected to be $116 million to $123 million, compared with the FactSet consensus of $116 million. “We actively reengaged with investors of all types to deliver on our plan and enable $2 billion in loan originations,” said Chief Executive Scott Sanborn. “In the months ahead we are focused on increasing the diversity and resiliency of our funding mix, realigning our resources, and regaining our operating rhythm.” The stock has tumbled 54% year to date through Friday, while the S&P 500 SPX, -0.17% has gained 2%.
read more: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/lendingclubs-stock-jumps-after-results-beat-expectations-2016-11-07
Special Report: Elections and Housing
Ready or not, we vote for President on Tuesday. In this Special Edition we take a look at what Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton need to do to fix Housing and the Mortgage Industries.
The Collingwood Group Chairman Tim Rood says, “The candidates need to get serious about problems in housing, real estate and the mortgage market if we want to get above anemic growth rates. Over-regulation and a punitive enforcement environment is making it uneconomical for builders to build starter homes, suppressing real estate turnover, and keeping qualified first-time home buyers from getting a mortgage.”
Rood adds, “Much of the rally in home values can be attributed to and is mirror reflection of the steep decline in value during the housing crisis. And while low interest rates and high rents have fueled a housing rebound – the housing market has not had much of an impact on GDP because of the anemic new home construction numbers. Housing is at real risk of plateauing. Weak fundamentals — income growth, consumer confidence, median price to income, etc — cannot be cured just by just low interest rates.”
Collingwood Group Chairman Rood on Fox Business Network’s Cavuto:
>click to watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=znVK4JpdhCE
The Collingwood Group President Brian O’Reilly says “It’s amazing that something so vital as housing to the overall health of the American economy and the average American – is something Congress still can’t rally in support of resolving – especially when the risks associated with continued failure to do so are potentially so serious. The facts are that housing is a critical component of overall economic health in the US. Thus, continued failure by Congress to address housing reform is reckless and irresponsible.”
Why Clinton, Trump Need Housing Policy
With scarcely a mention of housing policy during either presidential candidate’s campaign, the only thing certain with the election is that there is a lot of uncertainly around how U.S. housing policy would be affected after the new president takes office in January.
Trump has stated publicly that he wants to eliminate the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform Act, which was passed six years ago andis viewed by the Obama Administration as one of its greatest victories. But he hasn’t said much of anything about housing policy.
“Trump really isn’t taking a policy position on a lot of key topics,” said Meg Burns, Managing Director of Washington, D.C.-based business advisory firm The Collingwood Group and a former Senior Associate Director for the FHFA.People certainly understand where he has publicly positioned himself on things like immigration, but housing is a bit more of an unknown other than the party platform. The irony is that is the case with Hillary Clinton as well. Publicly she has aligned herself with the progressives and publicly she is an ally to Elizabeth Warren and their fairly populist anti-bank message. They are pro-CFPB and pro-aggressive enforcement. That has been the public image, but whether or not that is a campaign position that she is taking or whether she would actually govern that way is very much unknown. There is tremendous uncertainty about what either of them would really do if they were to become president.”
Brian Montgomery, Vice Chairman and Co-Founder of The Collingwood Group and former FHA Commissioner, noted that neither candidate is known for single-family housing.
If Someone asked me about Trump, and I said, when you peel it all away, the guy is a real estate developer,” Montgomery said. “He may be developing golf courses and commercial real estate and multifamily, but he knows the process. He knows all the way from acquisition, development, financing, all the way through the whole continuum. Granted, that’s a far cry from knowing our industry, but I have to think at least on the issue of housing, he gets that topic. Probably more so in ways that Secretary Clinton doesn’t. That said, she’s probably much more well-versed in many other areas than he might not be.”
Montgomery added, “In terms of what (the election) would mean for this industry, if it stays Democrat to Democrat, you’re going to have more of the same. Based on past experiences, that would be my knee-jerk reaction. Trump on the othe hand, has said he wants to roll back Dodd-Frank. He thinks it’s costing jobs and he thinks it’s too expensive. But the only thing harder than passing legislation is replacing it or unwinding it, so even if he were to be elected, who knows?”
According to Burns, both candidates could be intentionally omitting homeownership and housing policy from their campaigns.
read more: http://www.themreport.com/daily-dose/10-03-2016/next-presidents-influence-on-housing-policy
What Will Housing Policy Look Like Under Clinton, Trump Administration? Experts Weigh in
With the presidential election just four days away, speculation is running high at the 2016 REALTORS® Conference and Expo on how the outcome could affect housing policy.
Jim Parrott, a senior fellow at the Urban Institute and owner of Falling Creek Advisors, said that while it’s hard to determine exactly what housing policy will look like under the next administration, the current challenges facing housing policy are clear.
Parrott cited access to credit as one significant concern, noting that credit overlays have led to a point where borrowers who qualify for Federal Housing Administration loan might not be able to find a lender willing to give them one.
Brian Montgomery, vice chairman and co-founder of The Collingwood Group LLC, joined Parrott on the panel. He pointed to the rise of so-called non-bank lenders, noting that their growing domination of the FHA lending space. Montgomery cited concerns over the False Claims Act, among others, as reasons why larger institutions like Chase Bank and Bank of America have set aside their FHA lending practice.
Over the past year, the National Association of Realtors® has worked closely with FHA, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau and other federal agencies to support policies that promote homeownership. NAR specifically worked with federal agencies on a range of issues including appraisals, condo regulations, and updates to the Know Before You Owe rule.
Parrott and Montgomery’s comments were followed by a deeper discussion of regulatory issues facing real estate professionals, including those related to RESPA, the recent PHH decision and others.
read more: http://narnewsline.blogs.realtor.org/2016/11/04/what-will-housing-policy-look-like-under-clinton-trump-administration-experts-weigh-in/
Clinton or Trump Better for the Housing Market?
For an election supposedly based on the economy, housing policy has been not just conspicuously but egregiously absent from the rhetoric.
In order to gauge which candidate would favor the U.S. housing market, one has to look at their wider economic policies and see how they would trickle down to housing.
“What we’ve really gotten is more directional conversation: One party talking about affordable housing, the other party talking about deregulating a financial market that seems to have largely seized up,” said Rick Sharga, executive vice president of Ten-X, an online real estate marketplace for investors.
“It would have been nice to see a more holistic view that talks about issues.”Unlike the candidates’ housing policies, the housing market’s issues are clear. How will the next administration tackle reforming mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? They still back the bulk of the mortgage market and are highly profitable, but they are still under government conservatorship, paying the U.S. Treasury Department every cent of profit.
Both candidates claim they will grow the economy; housing is central to that, as it contributes to the economy in various ways. From homeowner spending to the jobs and materials used in home construction, housing is key.
Boosting home ownership means making mortgages more affordable and more accessible. “I think that means lowering FHA premiums, cutting GSE [government-sponsored enterprise] guarantee fees, doing things to make mortgages cheaper. It also means eliminating the perception out there that people can’t qualify for credit,” said Jaret Seiberg, managing director at Cowen Group, a financial services company.
read more: http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/02/how-housing-would-fare-under-clinton-trump.html
Ten-X’s Rick Sharga on Nightly Business Report:
>click to watch: https://youtu.be/SuLsCcGem90
Why Clinton, Trump Aren’t Getting More Mortgage Industry Money
Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is far outpacing her Republican rival Donald Trump in campaign contributions from mortgage bankers and brokers, but the industry’s lackluster donation activity exposes a sense of apathy toward candidates who have not made housing policy a focal point in their campaigns.
In an election year dominated by controversy and big personalities, contributions activity from the mortgage industry has remained relatively muted, but still up from the recent midterm cycles. This year, there’s been just over $5 million in mortgage industry donations, down from $5.5 million four years ago and $6.5 million in 2008, according to data from the Center for Responsive Politics, the nonpartisan, nonprofit organization that
Among all donors, Clinton has raised roughly twice as much in campaign funds as Trump, not including money donated to outside groups. But among mortgage industry donors, Clinton has received five times what Trump has.
But Trump’s lackluster support from the mortgage industry does strike some as surprising given his background as a commercial real estate developer.
“While he develops commercial real estate and resorts, I think the man gets the machinations of a transaction,” said Brian Montgomery Vice Chairman of The Collingwood Group and a former Federal Housing Administration commissioner. “In the abstract, you could think that’s a positive for the mortgage industry.”
“If she does win, I think the industry could expect more of the same,” Montgomery said.
Consequently, Montgomery said that professionals in the industry may now be shifting their focus to congressional races “to build a firewall” that would keep a potential consecutive Democratic administration in check.
read more: http://www.nationalmortgagenews.com/news/compliance-regulation/why-clinton-trump-arent-getting-more-mortgage-industry-money-1089268-1.html?zkPrintable=true
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